Demographic Inference
Demographic Inference
: Model-free
PSMC
Source: Cousins et al. (2025)
GONE
Source: Santiago et al. (2020)
Demographic Inference
: Model-based
Infer best-likelihood parameters of the model
Demographic Inference
: Model-based
An epoch is a time interval during which the population size is either constant or changes at a constant, specified rate
Demographic History
: Visualization
Demographic History
Of Multiple Populations
drawn by demes [Gower et al. 2022]
Demographic History
: Of Multiple Populations
An epoch is a time interval during which all populations’ sizes and migration rates are either constant or change at constant, specified rates
Demographic Inference Tools
Demographic Inference Tools
: Model-based
Demographic Inference Tools
: Model-based
Examples:
- $\partial a \partial i$ [Gutenkunst et al. 2009]
- moments [Jouganous et al. 2017]
- momentsLD [Ragsdale and Gravel 2019, 2020]
- momi2 [Kamm et al. 2020]
- fastsimcoal2 [Excoffier et al. 2013, 2021]
- Dical2 [Steinrücken et al. 2019]
Issues of Existing Tools
Issue 1: Model Specification
Specification
for $\partial a \partial i$
Issue 2: Model Selection
GADMA — Global search Algorithm for Demographic Model Analysis
- Several likelihood engines ($\partial a \partial i$, moments, momi2, momentsLD)
- Common interface
- New model specification
- Effective global optimization
[Noskova et al. 2020] [Noskova et al. 2023]
New Model Specification
New Model Specification
New model in GADMA that is specified only by the number of epochs.
Available up to three populations
Flexible Dynamics
New model in GADMA has flexible dynamics of population size change.
Population dynamic can be:
- Constant (sudden change)
- Linear
- Exponential
Additional controls
Practical
Our Data
One-Epoch Demographic History
One-Epoch Demographic History
Two-Epochs Demographic History
Two-Epochs Demographic History
Three-Epochs Demographic History
Three-Epochs Demographic History
*is basically two-epochs history, but we cannot cover this case with two epochs in GADMA
Four-Epochs Demographic History
Four-Epochs Demographic History
Polarization Error?
Polarization Error?
Thank you!
